Sterling reclaimed some lost ground yesterday after a terrible performance last week, as recent data showed that production in the industrial and manufacturing sectors exceed economists’ forecasts in August, suggesting that the UK Economy may have gathered pace in the 3rd quarter; the opposite to what is currently expected
A widening in the trade deficit figures did overshadow the production data releases, which kept the Pounds gains somewhat limited throughout the day.
In a separate report on Tuesday from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) they estimate the economy grew by 0.4% for the 3rd quarter, which would be an additional 0.1% of growth from the 0.3% seen in the second quarter.
The final round of Brexit talks continues this week and are crucial ahead of the EU’s key decision on whether the talks have progressed enough to move onto trade negotiations.
The UK data calendar is empty for the remainder of the week.
After the Columbus Day bank holiday in the States on Monday, US economic data was very slim yesterday.
Today we look to the latest set of minutes from the FOMC for direction on US monetary policy. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank and are used as a guide to future US interest rate policy.
Important points for the Euro for the remainder of the week includes a keynote speech from ECB president Mario Draghi on Thursday followed by a speech from ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio on Friday.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May speech
7.00 am – German trade balance (August): previous reading showed surplus of €19.5 billion. ACTUAL €21.6 BILLION
9.30 am – UK trade balance (August): Julys figure was a deficit of £4.23 billion. ACTUAL DEFICIT OF £5.62 BILLION
7.00 pm – FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA
1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 7 October): expected to rise to 254K
3.15 pm – ECB president Mario Draghi speech
1.30 pm – US CPI (inflation), retail sales (September): CPI expected to rise to 2% from 1.9% YoY and fall to 0.1% from 0.4% MoM. Retail sales expected to rise 0.4% MoM from -0.2%