PM May’s announcement that she was to call a snap election sent the pound rocketing yesterday with an initial drop from the pound turning into a complete reversal by market close.
The risky move sent the Pound to a five-month high versus the US Dollar and a 2 month high versus the Euro and Deutsche Bank said the surprise election call is a “game-changer” for the Pound and that it will raise its forecasts for the pound over the coming days.
Today the House of Commons will vote on whether the PM can call the election, a move that will drive currency markets today.
Markets remain concerned about the French presidential election this weekend as opinion polls have for months shown far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron qualifying next Sunday for the May 7 run-off. However, for the meantime it remains a contested four-way vote with conservative Francois Fillon and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Data releases for the week ahead:
10.00 am – Eurozone inflation (March, final): expected to fall to 1.5% YoY
House of Commons vote on June 8th General Election
1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 April), Philadelphia Fed index (April): claims expected to be 242K. Philly Fed index expected to fall to 25 from 32.8
3.00 pm – Eurozone consumer confidence (April, flash): forecast to fall to -4.5 from -5
8.00 am – 9.00 am – French, German, Eurozone manufacturing PMI’s (April, flash).
9.30 am – UK retail sales (March): forecast to rise 3.6% YoY and fall -0.2% MoM
2.45 pm – US manufacturing PMI (April, flash): expected to rise to 53.5 from 53.3
3.00 pm – US existing home sales (March): forecast to rise to an annual rate of 5.6 million from 5.48 million
Casco Financial Services Limited